When monitoring began, the landslide mass was moving at a rate of approximately 1.0 ft/week. Based on recent monitoring, we know that the landslide mass above the quarry is now moving downhill toward the south (~190-degree azimuth), at an average constant rate of 1.6 ft/week, or ~2.5 inches/day based on the most recent measurements (1/16/2018).
There are large ground cracks that trend north-northwest that are visible in the quarry and farther uphill. These cracks have been widening and new cracks have developed since October.
It is estimated that the landslide volume is ~4 million cubic yards and covers an area of about 20 acres.
The honest answer is no one knows for certain. There are a number of possibilities. The most likely scenario is that the landslide will continue to slowly move to the south, where the landslide mass will fall into the quarry pit and accumulate. Monitoring data suggests most of the mass will remain in the pit and on the hillside. Some rocks are expected to fall around the pit and to the west in this scenario, likely reaching Thorp Rd. In this scenario the landslide is not expected to reach I-82 or the Yakima River.
In less likely scenarios, the landslide may move beyond the quarry and potentially damage the houses to the south of the quarry and Thorp Rd. and possibly reach I-82. A very unlikely scenario is that the landslide will run out beyond I-82 and reach the Yakima River. Based on the measured movement direction of the landslide, the slope of the sedimentary interbed, a landslide that moves west and blocks I-82 and the Yakima River is extremely unlikely. Plans are in place to deal with this unlikely scenario.
Based on monitoring data, geologists and engineers who are studying the landslide estimated an event would occur sometime in early March, 2018. However, over the last week, the landslide has changed its behavior and it is now not possible to estimate when or even if a large failure event will occur.
What Are We Doing About It?
Multiple agencies have collaborated to deploy GPS monitoring stations, seismometers, total station receivers, aerial imagery, and terrestrial lidar. The site is also under 24-hour observation. Members of participating organizations conduct a regular conference call and Yakima County distributes a daily situation report, which may be found on their website.
Large shipping containers filled with concrete (Conex boxes) have been placed on the southwest corner of the landslide mass along Thorp Rd. to block rockfall from I-82. Yakima County has closed Thorp Rd.
A Level-3 evacuation has been issued for residents south of the landslide. To date, most residents have evacuated and have been provided with hotel rooms and emergency services.
Preparing for the worst
Local, state, and federal agencies, the Yakama Nation, and mine operators are working together to monitor the landslide and adjust plans as more information is gathered. Detour routes have been planned for I-82, and the interstate will be closed if the landslide accelerates. Plans have been implemented for possible scenarios where the landslide could impact or dam the river to the south or west.
Who Is Involved in Monitoring the Situation?
Columbia Asphalt (quarry operators)
Yakima Valley Office of Emergency Management
Washington Geological Survey (Washington State Department of Natural Resources)
Washington State Department of Transportation
Yakima County and several local city officials
Washington State Patrol
Mine Safety and Health Administration
U.S. Bureau of Reclamation
Washington State Department of Ecology
Washington State Department of Fish and Wildlife
Pacific Northwest Seismic Network